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Natural capital

Five reasons to consider an allocation to farmland

Tractor with hay bales in a field at sunrise.
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A growing number of investors are in search of sources of stability and value to combat continued market volatility. Farmland has historically offered stability, income and uncorrelated returns, while providing resiliency in downturns and inflationary periods.

1. Attractive risk-adjusted returns

Over the past 30+ years, farmland has demonstrated competitive returns, compared to traditional asset classes, with a fixed income level of volatility.

Annual return vs. volatility
 
2. Historically consistent income and growth

Agricultural land has provided consistent income and capital appreciation over the past three decades.

 

NCREIF row crop returns
3. Resilience through economic downturns

Farmland has historically provided stable returns with low volatility through economic cycles.

Farmland returns were positive in the last three recessions.
 
4. Inflation protection

Farmland returns have consistently outpaced inflation in a variety of market cycles.

Farmland's annual outperformance relative to inflation by decade.
 
5. Powerful supply & demand fundamentals

Increasing demand for food from growing populations puts pressure on a tightening agriculture land base, driving farmland values higher over time.


Projected population growth and declining arable land per person.

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Global farmland capabilities | Nuveen Natural Capital

It is not possible to invest in an index. Performance for indices does not reflect investment fees or transactions costs. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Indexes are unmanaged and do not incur management fees, costs or expenses. Data sources: Chart 1 Attractive risk-adjusted returns: TIAA-CREF Center for Farmland Research, NCREIF, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Asset classes represent the following indexes: U.S. Equities – Russell 3000 Index; U.S. Fixed Income – Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; U.S. REITs – 1992 to March 2006 NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index Series and March 2006 on FTSE NAREIT US Real Estate Index Series; Real Estate – NCREIF Property Index; U.S. Farmland – NCREIF Farmland Index; U.S. Timberland – NCREIF Timberland Index; Agricultural commodities – S&P GSCI Agriculture Index. Chart 2 Historically consistent income and growth: NCREIF Farmland Index, row crop index annual performance from 1991 to 2024. Chart 3 Resilience through economic downturns: U.S. economic recession timeframes sourced from Macrobond, NCREIF Farmland Index from NCREIF, data to 31 Dec 2024. Chart 4 Inflation protection: TIAA Center for Farmland Research at the University of Illinois and U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of 31 August 2025. Data depicts average annual outperformance of farmland over the U.S. CPI Urban Consumers YoY Index for each decade, using on the TIAA Center for Farmland Research state-level data based on USDA survey results. Chart 5 Powerful supply & demand fundamentals: UN World Population Forecast 2024; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) 2023. NOTE: Expected arable land area per person based on UN population forecast and the average annual change in total arable land between 2018 and 2022 calculated using FAOSTAT data.

Glossary

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index  is a broad-based fixed-income index used by bond traders and the managers of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds as a benchmark to measure their relative performance.

FTSE NAREIT US Real Estate Index Series is a comprehensive family of REIT-focused indices that span the commercial real estate industry, providing market participants with a range of tools to benchmark and analyse exposure to real estate across the US economy at both a broad industry-wide level and on a sector-by-sector basis. Prior to March 2006, this Index was known as the NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index Series.

NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index Series is a comprehensive family of REIT-focused indices that span the commercial real estate industry, providing market participants with a range of tools to benchmark and analyse exposure to real estate across the US economy at both a broad industry-wide level and on a sector-by-sector basis. After March 2006, this Index was known as the FTSE NAREIT U.S. Real Estate Index Series.

NCREIF Property Index is a quarterly, unleveraged composite total return index for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes by tax-exempt institutional investors.

NCREIF Farmland Index is a quarterly time series composite return measure of investment performance of a large pool of individual farmland properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only.

NCREIF Timberland Index is a quarterly time series composite return measure of investment performance of a large pool of individual U.S. timber properties acquired in the private market for investment purposes only.

Russell 3000 Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of the 3,000 largest publicly traded companies in the United States, representing about 98% of the investable U.S. stock market.

S&P GSCI Agriculture Index is a sub-index of the S&P GSCI, provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark for investment performance in the agricultural commodity markets.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. There is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved.
As an asset class, agricultural investments are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Agricultural investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets, including changes in economic conditions, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties.

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